Stocks

[Chris]

How is everyone's portfolio doing? It has been so topsy turvy lately I've been paying extra attention to mine.

Of course July had a nice run up until late in the month and it all took a nose-dive. I was down almost to break even, which sucks. I didn't sell though, just bought more.

Since the end of August then my portfolio is up 50%, it is something ridiculous like almost $2k a day.

The last couple days have been decided wonky too, one day up big, one day down big, one day up big, one day down big.

However, I think I've been luckier than others. The up days have all been driven by solar panel companies. Starting last winter I started buying a lot of them, the time is just right and science or technology aside, politics dictates more solar energy is needed.

So for instance today most stocks are down, but FSLR, one of mine, is up 30%. That stock is approaching being up 1000% on the year. All the other solar companies are doing pretty good too.

I get worried about the weak dollar and inflation though, because really, my portfolio may be up 50%, but if the dollar is down 30% then I really didn't gain that much in actual wealth as far as what I can buy with my money.

Thoughts?

[FPU]

Buying more losers is bad trading, most professional traders use stop losses to protect their principal, so if they buy at $100.00, the stop loss of 10% takes them out of the position at $90.00.

Professionals adjust their stop losses up as the stock price increases, called a trailing stop.

Your goal is to make money, not to lose it all or get emotional or as the pro's call it "getting married to a stock".

[Generalissimo]

You sound like you're doing well Chris, and congratulations on this, but as you rightly point out the growth in August is 'ridiculous'. Obviously it wasn't like this across the stock market, but seen as though there was a credit crunch recently it does seem a bit strange that stocks have risen. I think it's unsustainable, and I'd be looking at reducing my investment in the stock market if I was an investor right now. Oil is about $100 a barrell too, how much is this going to effect profitability of enterprises with low profit margins that rely on transport? There's a lot of risks at the moment. Even google, who relys on advertising, is going to see a hit because of this as transport will be more expensive, and a lot of the ads are selling products that need to be transported. The higher prices will lower quantity of the products demanded, and cause less advertising.

Off topic: And on topic of weak dollar, how I wish I didn't live under the strong pound right now! I used to get about 55p per dollar, now it's about 45p.

[Chris]

FPU, I don't get married to stocks. I'm also not a trader, I'm an investor. Because I am in the highest tax bracket and if I sell a stock before I've owned it for a year I pay around 40% tax on my gain instead of 15%. That is a pretty good motivation to buy and hold.

Buying when things are down, and selling when things are high, is how you make money, not buying when they're high and selling when low like you suggest.

Sean, Actually it wasn't August, but September and October that had crazy growth, and it wasn't really the market overall, just the sectors I invest in. Most people are down over the same period, I'm way way up. I think the subprime thing is way overblown. GDP and unemployement have both been good lately, so I see the economy as strong. The only worry on my horizon is anti-growth tax increases depending on who wins the next election. If for instance the capital gains tax more than doubles like might happen that is going to kill the stock market as well as business investment and development.

I think a large portion of the oil cost can be attributed to the weak dollar, same of course with the increase in gold. The rest apparently the Saudi's miscalculated demand and caused a pinch on supply that they will supposedly remedy sometime this winter.

In anycase, high oil is good if you own alternative energy stocks, which I do.

As far as moving out of stocks, where would one move into? Dollars? With the horrible inflation going on? Gold? Gold has gone up so much recently I worry about a correction of some sort there as well. Invest in your own business? I've got about as much of that going on as I can handle right now already.

No, I think stocks are the way to go unless you're happy with the low return of bonds. You just gotta pick things smart. I like the alternative energy stocks because that is the way the political winds are blowing and they'll continue to blow that way in recession or economic downturns. Also, try hitting larger companies in different countries, or those who serve different countries, so a single country recession affects less of your portfolio. Diversity.

[Todd W]

My apple stocks are doing mighty well :ladysman: Wish I had more.

[agua]

My apple stocks are doing mighty well :ladysman: Wish I had more.
I wish I had some :(

[Westech]

My reasonably conservative portfolio is up around 7% YTD after the recent decline. It took a hit, but I'm still happy with the overall performance.

I'm considering municipal bonds as a long-term alternative to stocks, cash, or metals. When taking their tax savings into account you can get the equivalent of a 7-8% return with little risk if you plan to hold them to maturity.

[Chris]

oh yes, Apple doing good for me too.

[deronsizemore]

I haven't got into stocks yet. I'd like to though, just don't know what I'm doing. Going to start reading up.

[demosfen]

Investing in stocks (assuming we are talking US stocks) now is a really bad idea. A more effective way of achieving the same thing would be to put your $$ in a shoe box and mail it to Federal Reserve as an anonymous donation

Most people still don't seem to understand what's going on - we are headed into a depression that will make the one in 1930's seem mild. Bernanke is on a mission to destroy dollar and no one except for Bartiromo, Cavuto, and Co. has anything good to say about the economy. Gold is traditional safe heaven in a hyperinflation scenario . Some people are religiously opposed to investing in this 'barbaric metal' for whatever reason, in that case I'd go with foreign currencies and some commodities

[Chris]

I never expected you to recommend gold there Demofen.

[Billyray]

Most people still don't seem to understand what's going on

I'm with you Demosfen. I watched the Dow fall in '87 and the current situation scares the hell out of me. There are a lot of scary factors out there at the moment and they aren't positives.

[demosfen]

I never expected you to recommend gold there Demofen.

I am shocked myself, don't know how that happened. Silver is much better, it outperformed gold like 400% during the last bull market in metals. Gold is a very conservative investment comparing to silver, sort of like CDs vs. stocks

[Generalissimo]

To be honest I'm not going to go as far as demosfen, but I do think the recession that is coming is going to be larger than the last few we have. Greenspan has said there is a 30-40% chance of a 'full-blown recession', and he's more likely to underexaggerate than exaggerate. Oil at $100 is pushing up prices of transport, and making investments less viable. This is especially true in third world countries, and this has shot up their prices of food (which led to the events in Burma, as well as basically a war between farmers and the government in areas of India). We haven't felt the full effects of the credit crunch either yet.

I think metal is a good idea to put money in at the moment. Even if a recession doesn't happen, the increasing fears of one will push the price of metal up.

There is this naive view some people in business have that since the new millennium we've escaped recessions, as we will only have small things like the 2001 web issue. In economics generally people see that there are crashes every 7 to 11 years. These can be of different proportions based on what caused them.

The US has currently got $4 trillion of debt. Before the current government it has only ever managed, from Washington to Clinton, to make $1 trillion. This is a massive debt that the US is only able to sustain because of the Chinese and others reinvesting back in the US dollar. They are getting scared as it devalues. When they get too scared (or it is in their economic or geopolitical interests to do so) they will sell all their reserves and we'll see the crash.

[Chris]

I'm with you Demosfen. I watched the Dow fall in '87 and the current situation scares the hell out of me. There are a lot of scary factors out there at the moment and they aren't positives.

You know, if you had bought at that fall, you would be up crazy amounts right now. Even if you bought right before it instead of right after you would be up crazy amounts if you had held your stocks instead of running.

[Chris]

Of course, both oil and gold have plummeted in the last few days (percentage wise from their highs).

I like the stability and reliability of gold (or platinum, or uranium) too, but with the recent big run ups a correction is needed before I buy any.

I also don't think we'll see a recession. Unemployment is at record low levels, GDP is increasing at strong rates, salaries are increasing at strong rates. The economy is more resilient than you think. Plus, the shrinking dollar helps our export businesses.

And you know Sean, Demosfen here has been talking doomsday conspiracy stuff buy gold/silver/etc put it in a shoebox as long as I've seen him post, which I think probably goes back to around 2000. Thats why I said I wasn't very suprised when he came to this thread and said "buy gold" heh.

In the end the economy I would worry about is China's and others who export a lot to the US. As long as we don't get a big tax hike the US economy should weather the storm and keep growing, but I may be selling my stocks in 2008 depending on who is elected.

[demosfen]

You know, if you had bought at that fall, you would be up crazy amounts right now. Even if you bought right before it instead of right after you would be up crazy amounts if you had held your stocks instead of running.
That's exactly why it is scary, all signs of last stage bull market just before it's over. Major gains, a lot of volatility, and large trade volume. Same as NASDAQ in 2000, real estate in 2005, etc.

(your timing is a bit off, I was clueless in 2000 unfortunately. Didn't wake up to precious metals until 2005 - still not bad, but I sure wish I figured it earlier )

[Billyray]

You know, if you had bought at that fall, you would be up crazy amounts right now. Even if you bought right before it instead of right after you would be up crazy amounts if you had held your stocks instead of running.

Yeah I did know that. Usually I don't give a stuff what the market is doing - ie in the long run if you have quality and don't sell it goes up.

I've been geared up for the last 4 years and the recent volatility is making me twitch.

http://www.investorweb.com.au/Funds/MB_mf_pricing.asp?Secnumber=8119&Type=PIC&Style=1

[forumposters]

FSLR has a very nice chart. Solar power is getting more and more attention and interest. First solar seems to have found a different way to produce solar panels without using the costly silicone. I could see this stock going up another 10 fold in 2008 as coal and fossil fuel energy gets more and more expensive and in demand. Personally, I don't want to see any more nuclear power plants built and I certainly don't want the waste stored anywhere near my backyard. Are you still holding on to your FSLR? What a day it had today!

[Chris]

Ya, I'm holding it, until I'm longterm on it so am able to sell it and only pay capital gains, right now I haven't had it quite a year.

[paul]

...has been talking doomsday conspiracy stuff buy gold/silver/etc put it in a shoebox as long as I've seen him post...

There was a guy named Ashby Bladden whose book "The coming Economic Collapse" got him a column on Forbes. I think that was about 1979. He finally took his book off the market and quit writing when none of his scenarios came true. :)

[demosfen]

I get a kick out of watching Peter Schiff interviewed by Wall Street cheerleaders, like Cavuto or Bartiromo. It goes something like, "I gotta give you credit for having been accurate with your prediction of this and that, and that your fund outperforms those that invest in dollar-based assets... But you are an idiot peddling a worthless book with no clue how robust US economy is and how multitalented Bernanke is"

I thought Bartiromo was going to get a heart attack when she was interviewing him, she believes that US dollar is the best thing since sliced bread and unemployment rate is below zero

[Erin]

Sold Apple, sold Google. Happy (for now) with returns. We'll see where they end up.

But yeah, everything is way up and down.

[Chris]

BlackHatSEO was sharing his stock picks the other day, they all sucked and I think he is down big time since then. But I figured, why not post mine when I come up with them.

Tommorow I'm buying RIG & NVDA.

RIG is the world's leading deep ocean driller. If you follow the the oil industry you know that Brazil recently just found a huge oil field off their coast. Other countries are going to continue exploration. If you think oil prices will stay up or continue to climb, any oil exploration or drilling related stock should do well. Even if some countries decide not to allow such drilling. There will always be more practical countries out there (such as Brazil).

NVDA you all know of course as Nvidia. It is a cyclical trade. I've done it before, you buy in the low 20's, sell in the mid to high 30's. It just hit my buy point, so I'm buying some again. I wouldn't hold onto it long term, sell it as soon as it hits the mid 30s. But that is a nice 30% gain.

PS... Way nice sell Erin. I wish I had sold mine then, that was almost the peak.

[BGray]

BlackHatSEO was sharing his stock picks the other day, they all sucked and I think he is down big time since then. But I figured, why not post mine when I come up with them.

Tommorow I'm buying RIG & NVDA.

RIG is the world's leading deep ocean driller. If you follow the the oil industry you know that Brazil recently just found a huge oil field off their coast. Other countries are going to continue exploration. If you think oil prices will stay up or continue to climb, any oil exploration or drilling related stock should do well. Even if some countries decide not to allow such drilling. There will always be more practical countries out there (such as Brazil).

NVDA you all know of course as Nvidia. It is a cyclical trade. I've done it before, you buy in the low 20's, sell in the mid to high 30's. It just hit my buy point, so I'm buying some again. I wouldn't hold onto it long term, sell it as soon as it hits the mid 30s. But that is a nice 30% gain.



PS... Way nice sell Erin. I wish I had sold mine then, that was almost the peak.

Word of advice Chris. If you are banking on RIG doing well based on Brazilian business you might want to think again. I've been involved in the Oil and Gas sector in many facets over the past 6 years primarily in global project management and procurement for new oil projects. Brazil is by far the toughest country to work with IMO because of their slow customs and "take care of me" tactics. Projects can grind to a halt easily because of the country and I've never seen a project meet expected margins (not even close) when it was Brazilian based. Projects like these almost always have a late penalty and I've seen several kick in with Brazilian projects which hit daily and absolutely kill any profit margins. I've read positive analysts remarks on such projects many times from inside the industry and laughed.....and I've been right many more times than I've been wrong. Not to mention there is a very big bottle neck right now is pipe and several other raw materials. If they will be drilling with equipment in hand they should be fine but if they have an order in for new drilling risers or flotation they might already be behind the 8 ball.

[Chris]

No no. They're a global company, I was just using Brazil as an example of how with high oil prices people are looking towards ocean drilling more.

[Chris]

VZ, verizon. Real cheap right now, and a 4.55% dividend yield, so unlikely to go much cheaper. Great opportunity for a 30-40% gain in the next year, but even if it gains nothing you make 4.55% with the dividend. Their big growth will come from fiber optic roll out to homes so they can compete with cable and offer high speed (ridiculously high speed) internet, plus TV (with hundreds of HD channels), and of course land line phones. Cable doesn't have the bandwidth to do that, satellite doesn't have the bandwidth. The only way to get that kind of bandwidth is with fiber optic and thats phone campany, and VZ is the leader in that kind of service (AT&T has it too but they're a little behind).

SPAR, Spartan Motors. Makers those mine & IED resistant troop transports for Iraq etc (to replace humvees). No candidate is talking about cutting military funding, and if they did this would probably be the last program they cut because it is directly related to saving troop lives.

The company is doing quite well, they're based just south of Lansing here and in the news they're always hiring new people. The only place around here that is.

[Chris]

doubled up my position in YGE today, really cheap at around $17.

[Billyray]

I'm feeling a little bullish now. How about you Demosfen, Sean?

[Chris]

I've just been moving into dividend paying defensive plays mostly, but there was no avoiding last weeks tsunami unless you were in cash.

How I wish I had cashed out last october, I'd be a couple hundred thousand dollars richer.

I'm confident enough in my portfolio that I know I'll do well in a recovery - just need that recovery.

[demosfen]

I am still bearish on Dow billy, I think it still has a few thousand points to drop. But what's important is not where the bottom is, but that recovery will be L-shaped, not V-shaped. I don't see a point trying to catch a falling knife when you can wait for it to hit the ground and then pick it up. We'll have plenty of time. I don't think I'll be buying any stocks in another 2-3 years, until I see that it has been stable for some time. Except for shorts. I think retail sector is a prime candidate for shorting right now (Amazon etc.)

Other than that, cash is good (swiss franc, japanese yen). Gold and silver are getting hard to find, so it may be too late to invest in them. I saw some Jim Roger's interviews, he is buying agriculture. One of a few guys who knows what he is doing

[Austin26]

Hello friends,

Even i was thinking about the stock market only what to do your discussion help me a lot and i got some good points also.


Thanks:):)



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